5 mitos sobre a rede 5G

Many experts believe telecom operators will deploy 5G over so-called small cell networks. Unlike cell towers of the past that broadcast signals indiscriminately over a wide area, they envision new base stations being affixed to rooftops and lampposts to serve hyper-local areas. In theory, this design should provide better and faster coverage to those fortunate enough to live in said areas (mainly, cities in wealthy countries).

Onoe says this belief is an unfortunate self-fulfilling prophecy. By labeling 5G as a small cell or “hot spot” system at this stage, the industry is closing itself to other innovations. That’s a problem, he says, because such a “hot spot” system may not be so convenient to build in rural areas. Without a commercially viable strategy, the small cell structure of 5G could end up widening the digital divide.

Onoe says it would be better to keep an open mind to other technologies that could someday bring 5G to rural customers—or leave room for brilliant business models that could perhaps justify building far-reaching networks comprised of small cells. “At this point, I don’t believe we can achieve that,” he says. “But in the past, [the industry ultimately] realized what I thought was impossible.”

One of the boldest statements in Onoe’s speech was that deploying 5G will not require a ton of investment. This is counterintuitive to anyone listening to predictions for widespread deployment of cutting-edge technologies from massive MIMO to millimeter wave, or projections for the number of base stations required to build out a small cell network.

But rather than requiring a complete overhaul of existing networks as some imagine, Onoe believes 5G will be deployed largely on existing infrastructure. Better service, he insists, does not always correlate with greater capital expenditures. NTT DOCOMO’s 600 billion yen in capital expenditures last year marked a 15-year low, even as the data traffic across its networks grew 6300 percent since 2000.

In fact, Onoe actually expects capital expenditures for NTT DOCOMO to drop throughout 5G deployment, which he says would keep with trends for earlier wireless generations. To illustrate his point, Onoe opened a chart of the company’s capital expenditures over the past 20 years and asked the audience to guess when the company rolled out 3G and 4G LTE service. It’s impossible to tell based on expenditures alone. “For LTE, there was no increase in CapEx before the LTE launch,” he says. “That’s a fact”

Another assumption that Onoe loves to challenge is that 5G networks will quickly render 4G obsolete. Not so, he says. The dominance of a new wireless network is more of an evolution than a sudden debut. “Of course this happens eventually but not overnight,” he says.

There’s an oft-repeated line in the wireless world: With more smartphone users consuming more bandwidth per user, the portion of spectrum dedicated to mobile data is getting crowded—and we need more of it! But Onoe maintains that carriers can find plenty of existing spectrum to support 5G and free up more through re-farming, or the recycling of that which is currently dedicated to other uses.

To support his point, he again points to his experiences over more than 30 years in the industry. For example, he says, most people assumed 4G LTE service would require new spectrum, but NTT DOCOMO launched it in 2010 using only existing spectrum.

Many researchers and industry professionals are eager to find as many future uses for 5G as possible, and to enhance or expand existing services on the new network. Onoe insists that just because a new generation of wireless is in the works, it does not mean that it can or should serve every possible need under the sun—whether it’s autonomous driving, IoT, or mobile broadband service. “This is the most frustrating to me,” he says.